The Role of Wind Power Expansion for Carinthia

20.12.2024

In the lead-up to the public referendum on January 12, 2025, in Carinthia, which will decide on potential restrictions to wind power expansion, the IEE has conducted a comprehensive analysis of the possible consequences.

The study was based on the techno-economic optimization model LEGO, developed at TU Graz. Carinthia’s energy system was modeled as a so-called node-edge model, incorporating generation facilities, imports, exports, and hourly consumption time series (over 8,760 hours). The analysis assumed a scenario of a fully decarbonized energy system in the year 2040.
The additional electricity demand from electrification in transportation, heating, and industry was estimated based on current energy consumption data from Statistics Austria. Furthermore, the expected electricity demand for hydrogen production through electrolysis was calculated and integrated into the consumption data.

Optimization of the Energy System

The LEGO model enables total cost optimization by determining investments in new generation facilities while considering technical constraints. For the simulation, investment costs and potential for wind and photovoltaic (PV) systems were specified based on existing studies.

Results

In a technology-neutral scenario, it was shown that an optimal mix of wind power, photovoltaics (PV), and battery energy storage systems (BESS) can efficiently cover the entire additional electricity demand in Carinthia by 2040 (see Figure 1, left). If wind power expansion is entirely restricted, the missing energy generation would need to be replaced by a significantly larger capacity of photovoltaic systems (PV) and battery storage systems (BESS). The additional investments required for this would increase the levelized cost of electricity in Carinthia by approximately 60%.

The results highlight that only a coordinated expansion of all renewable energy sources can enable a cost-optimal energy system. In contrast, the specific location of wind power within Carinthia has less drastic impacts on overall system costs. The middle column in Figure 1 shows that restricting expansion to a few suitable sites with sufficient wind potential results in only marginal additional costs.

Figure 1: Cost-optimal investment decisions by technology. Left: Wind power expansion is possible according to technical wind power potentials. Center: Restricted wind power expansion according to the proposed zoning plan. Right: No wind power expansion allowed in Carinthia.

Conclusion

The analysis underscores that the expansion of wind power, in combination with photovoltaics, is crucial for meeting future renewable energy demand in Carinthia. Since wind power offers significantly more evenly distributed full-load hours throughout the year, substantial restrictions on wind power expansion cannot be offset by increased photovoltaic deployment alone.

Download the full analysis: The Role of Wind Power Expansion for Carinthia [de]

Please use the following citation:
Malacek, S., Gaugl, R., & Wogrin, S. (2024). Die Rolle des Windkraftausbaus für Kärnten. Graz University of Technology. https://doi.org/10.3217/q77sp-axf84